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Dr. Hudson is a financial economist and historian. He is President of
the Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends, a Wall Street
financial analyst and Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at
the University of Missouri, Kansas City, as well as at Peking
University. His 1972 book, Super-Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire, is a critique of how the United States exploited foreign economies through the IMF and World Bank. His latest book is Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the Global Economy. Due out soon, J Is for Junk Economics.
Today we discuss in detail the concept of debt deflation; housing,
student loan and automobile debt; the oil market; the stock market;
negative interest rates; currencies; and the shrinking real economy. We discuss in detail with Dr. Michael Hudson,
the concept of debt deflation; housing, student loan and automobile
debt; the oil market; the stock market; negative interest rates;
currencies; and the shrinking of the real economy. Most people think of the economy as producing goods and services
and paying labor to buy what it produces. But a growing part of the
economy in every country has been the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
(FIRE) sector, which comprises the rent and interest paid to the
economy’s balance sheet of assets by debtors and rent payers. More and
more money is being extracted from of the production and consumption
economy to pay the FIRE sector. That’s what causes debt deflation and
shrinks markets. If you pay the banks, you have less to spend on goods
and services. |
The Slow Crash. The Shrinking of the Real Economy
I’m
Bonnie Faulkner. Today on Guns and Butter, Dr. Michael Hudson. Today’s show: The Slow Crash.
Bonnie Faulkner: Michael Hudson, welcome.
Michael Hudson: It’s good to be here again, Bonnie.
Bonnie Faulkner: You have indicated that as a result
of United States and European debt deflation, there is an economic
slowdown. First of all, how would you define deflation?
Michael Hudson: There are two definitions of
deflation. Most people think of it simply as prices going down. But debt
deflation is what happens when people have to spend more and more of
their income to carry the debts that they’ve run up – to pay their
mortgage debt, to pay the credit card debt, to pay student loans.
Today, people are having to spend so much of their money, to acquire a
house and to get an education that they don’t have enough to spend on
goods and services, except by running into yet more debt on their credit
cards and other borrowings.
The result is that markets are slowing down. Deflation means a
slowdown of income growth. Markets shrink, new capital investment and
employment also taper off, so wages decline. That is what’s happening as
deliberate policy in Europe and the United States. Falling or stagnant
prices are simply the result of having less income to spend.
Bonnie Faulkner: Well, thank you for that, because
that is confusing, because I think a lot of people consider deflation
simply a decrease in price. Does that have anything to do with it?
Michael Hudson: The price decline is a result of
having to pay debts. That drains income from the circular flow between
production and consumption – that is, between what people are paid when
they go to work, and the things that they buy. Deflation is a leakage
from this circular flow, to pay banks and the real estate, called the
FIRE sector – finance, insurance and real estate. These transfer
payments leave less and less of the paycheck to be spent on goods and
services, so markets shrink.
Some prices for some products go down when
people can’t afford to buy them anymore. There are more sales, there’s
shrinkage, but especially incomes go down. Real incomes in the United
States have been drifting down for 30 years because there is slower and
slower market demand.
That’s why Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are getting so many votes.
When Hillary Clinton said she’s going to do just what Obama does and
we’re going to continue to recover, most people know that we’re not
recovering at all. We’re shrinking.
Bonnie Faulkner: So then, deflation has more to do with disposable income than it does with prices.
Michael Hudson: That’s correct, and that’s what is rarely
pointed out. People tend to think that paying a debt is like going out
and buying a car, buying more food or buying more clothes. But it really
isn’t. When you pay a debt to the bank, the banks use this money to
lend out to somebody else or to yourself. The interest charges to carry
this debt go up and up as debt grows. As you have to pay more interest
and amortization on what you owe, you’re left with less and less money
to buy goods and services – unless you borrow even more and go further
into debt.
So basically, unless you’re willing to write down debts and save the
economy, you’re going to have deflation and a steady drain in purchasing
power – that is, shrinking markets.
Bonnie Faulkner: So then the relationship between debt and deflation: Increasing debt creates more deflation. Would you say that’s the case?
Michael Hudson: Yes. In the 1930s, Irving Fisher
wrote an article “The Debt Deflation theory of the Great Depression,”
that established the obvious mathematical fact that paying debt service
to banks leaves less income to buy goods and services.
Bonnie Faulkner: Oftentimes people wonder, what’s
wrong with deflation? We’re always hearing about worries about
inflation, but what is the danger in deflation, as you’ve defined it?
Michael Hudson: Markets shrink and unemployment goes
up. Wages go down and living standards decline. When we say “people
worry” about inflation, it’s mainly bondholders that worry. The labor
force benefited from the inflation of the ‘50s, ‘60s and ‘70s. What was
rising most rapidly were wages. Bond prices fell steadily during these
decades. Stocks simply moved sideways.
Inflation usually helps the economy at large, but not the 1% if wages
rise. So the 1% says that it is terrible. They advocate austerity and
permanent deflation. And the media say that anything that doesn’t help
the 1% is bad.
But don’t believe it. When they say inflation is bad, deflation is
good, what they mean is, more money for us 1% is good; we’re all for
asset price inflation, we’re all for housing prices going up, and we’re
all for our stock and bonds prices going up. We’re just against you
workers getting more income.
Bonnie Faulkner: Right, because inflation puts more money, I guess, in circulation and we get more as a worker, for instance-
Michael Hudson: Well, if the economy is growing,
people want to employ more workers. If you hire more labor, wages go up.
So the 1% always wants to keep unemployment high – it used to be called
the reserve army of the unemployed. If you can keep unemployment high,
then you prevent wages from rising. That’s what’s happened since the
1970s here. Real wages have not risen, but the price of the things that
the 1% owns has risen – stocks, bonds, trophy art and things like that.
Bonnie Faulkner: So if I were to ask you what is wrong with deflation generally, would the answer ten be that it shrinks the economy?
Michael Hudson: That’s exactly it – lower wages,
lower living standards, and more money siphoned off to creditors at the
top of the pyramid. When there’s deflation, it means that although most
markets are shrinking and people have less to spend, the 1% that hold
the 99% in debt are getting all the growth in wealth and income.
Deflation means that income is being transferred to the 1%, that is, to
the creditors and property owners.
Bonnie Faulkner: Well, Michael, it sounds like in
your definition of debt deflation that you are describing exactly what’s
going on here in the United States and also in Europe.
Michael Hudson: Yep, that’s exactly what’s happening. It’s what I describe in Killing the Host.
Bonnie Faulkner: All sectors of the economy are
certainly not deflating, that is if we’re going to talk about prices
narrowly. What about the housing market? Are we looking at a housing
bubble?
Michael Hudson: Certainly not a bubble yet. You
still have 25% of American homes in negative equity – that is, when the
mortgages are higher than the market value of the housing. So for many
people, the mortgages they took out before 2008 are so high that they
would be better off walking away from their houses. That is called
“jingle mail,” returning the keys to the bank and saying, “You can have
the house. I can buy the house next door that’s just like this for 20%
less, so I’m going to save money and switch.” That’s what someone like
Donald Trump or a real estate investor would do. But the banks are
trying to convince the mortgage debtors, the homeowners, not to act in
their own self-interest.
Bonnie Faulkner: Yes. I live in Northern California,
in the Bay area, so I guess this is an exception to what’s going on
overall across the country.
Michael Hudson: That’s a rich area, and houses in
expensive areas are going up, but not as fast as they used to. Luxury
housing in gated communities is going up. But for blue-collar-income
neighborhoods and even middle-class neighborhoods, there has not been
much of a recovery. It’s good news for burglar-alarm manufacturers,
because crime is going up.
Bonnie Faulkner: It looks like the Bank of America
is going back into the subprime loan market, albeit in league with U.S.
Government. What do you make of Bank of America’s new Affordable Loan
Program, which offers 3%-down mortgages with no mortgage insurance, and
partners with Freddie Mac in something called the Self-Help Ventures
Fund?
Michael Hudson: This reflects the degree to which
the banks have been able to capture the Federal Housing Authority and
Freddie Mac as well as the Federal Reserve. They are all trying to
re-inflate the re bubble. The myth is that if housing prices go up,
Americans will be richer. What banks – and behind them, the Federal
Reserve – really want is for new buyers to be able to borrow enough
money to buy the houses from mortgage defaulters, and thus save the
banks from suffering from more mortgage defaults.
Actually, high housing prices don’t help the economy. They raise the
cost of living. Everybody would be better off if they could buy housing
for only, let’s say, a carrying charge of one-quarter of their income.
That used to be the case 50 years ago. Buyers had to save up and make a
higher down payment, giving them more equity – perhaps 25 or 30 percent.
But today, banks are creating enough credit to bid up housing prices
again.
The aim of promoting low down payments is to push prices back up so
that fewer houses are going to be in negative equity and fewer people
are going to walk away from the mortgages. That will save the banks from
taking a loss on their junk mortgage loans.
Bonnie Faulkner: The FHA is offering subprime loans, as well. Isn’t that right?
Michael Hudson: For 3.5% downpayment. This was
unheard of when I first went to work on Wall Street in 1961. I was
working for the Savings Banks Trust Company – the central bank for New
York State savings banks, which were the main mortgage lenders. At that
time the rule of thumb was that home buyers needed a 30% down payment
(equity), so that when the banks made a loan, the property would have to
go down by 30% to make the bank in trouble. That was the homeowner’s
equity that was at risk. It provided security for the banks.
Now, suppose that a homeowner puts down only 3% of their own money or
3.5% for the FHA. That means if prices go down by only 3%, the house
will be in negative equity and it would pay the homeowner just to walk
away and say, “The house now is worth less than the mortgage I owe. I
think I’m just going to move out and buy a cheaper house.” So it’s very
risky when you have only a 3% or 3.5% equity for the loan. The bank
really isn’t left with much cushion as collateral.
Now, the banks argue, “Wait a minute. We’re making these loans to
people with good credit ratings, and they have enough money to pay, even
if the house’s price goes down.” But the banks are taking a risk that
the homeowner is going to be naïve enough not to walk away and leave the
bank holding a bad debt, so it’s very risky. It’s a degree of risk that
no bank would have taken prior to Alan Greenspan’s tenure at the Fed.
Bonnie Faulkner: Why would the United States government be encouraging these risky loans?
Michael Hudson: Because the government is dominated
mainly by the financial, insurance and real estate lobby, the FIRE
sector. It’s called regulatory capture. The real estate interests and
banks are in a kind of symbiosis. They’re the largest-growing part of
the economy. This is the sector that backs the political campaigns of
senators, presidents and congressmen, and they use this leverage to make
sure that their people dominate the Federal Reserve, Treasury and the
federal housing agencies.
Bonnie Faulkner: Just for clarification, why would the banks be pushing these risky loans if there’s a high degree of default?
Michael Hudson: When you say “bank,” a bank is a
building, a set of computers and chairs and things. The bankers are the
people running these banks. They’re the chief officers, and they push
the loans because they don’t care if they go bad. For one thing, they
may package these bad loans and sell them off to gullible institutional
investors. If bankers can push the loans and make more profits for the
bank, they get paid higher bonuses. They often also get stock options.
If the bank goes under, they get to keep all of these salaries and
options – and the government will bail out the bank. These guys will
take their money and run, which is pretty much what they’re doing now. I
think we’re in the take-the-money-and-run stage of the economy. So the
banks may go under, but the bankers, who make the policy, clean up.
Bonnie Faulkner: Thank you for that distinction. What about automobile loans? You’ve referred to them as “junk loans.” How do you mean?
Michael Hudson: There’s been a large increase in
loans to people to buy autos to get to work. Just like they’ve lowered
lending standards on making home mortgages, they’ve lowered standards on
auto loans. So default rates are going up, and so are repossessions of
autos. It’s become a common sight in many neighborhoods. So banks are
losing on defaults on auto loans, just as defaults are happening more
and more on student loans, and are still going on in the mortgage
market.
Bonnie Faulkner: You mentioned the student loan debt. How big is it?
Michael Hudson: It’s about $1.3 trillion by now. The
government has guaranteed this student loan debt, so banks are eager to
make loans to students. Often they’ll get the parents to countersign.
The banks make money whether the students pay or not because the
government has promised to pay the banks if the loans go bad. And
defaults lead to lucrative penalty fees for the banks, which the
government also guarantees.
The fact that you have government-guaranteed student loans has
created a whole new sector in the American economy that didn’t really
exist before – private for-profit universities that sell junk degrees
that don’t help the students. They promise the students, “We’ll help you
get a better job.
We’ll arrange a loan so that you don’t have to pay a
penny for this education.” Their pet bank gets them the
government-guaranteed loan, and the student may get the junk degree, but
doesn’t get a job, so they don’t pay the loan. The government pays the
bank anyway, at a pretty high interest rate, 7% or 8%, plus all the
penalties that banks charge. This makes student loans a way to organize a
government giveaway to the banks and to the junk universities they
subsidize.
Bonnie Faulkner: Is it true that one cannot declare bankruptcy on student debt?
Michael Hudson: That’s right. Someone in Congress
said, “We want to make sure the government can collect and the taxpayer
doesn’t lose on this. So these loans are not subject to being written
down by a bankruptcy proceeding.” Normally, if someone goes bankrupt,
you wipe out the debt and get a fresh start. But that’s not permitted
with student loans. So the effect is to impoverish many graduates with
very high debts.
Just like a house is worth whatever a bank’s going to lend against
it, an education is worth whatever the bank is going to lend the student
to pay the university. So the availability of government-guaranteed
student loans has vastly inflated the cost of education, just like it’s
inflated the cost of housing.
But in housing you have jingle mail and you can walk away and leave
the bank holding the bag. In the case of student loans, the debt follows
you through life, and the banks or government will turn it over to
collection agencies that are not very nice people and can do all sorts
of harassing things to you. It’s becoming a nightmare.
Bonnie Faulkner: I also have read that with regard
to student loans they can attach your salary. They can even attach your
Social Security check.
Michael Hudson: Even the Social Security – mainly
for parents who have countersigned for loans for their children. Their
Social Security can be sequestered and attached by collection agencies.
Most of the defaults are on junk education, the private for-profit
diploma mills.
Education is something that should not be organized on a for-profit
basis, because in that case its purpose is not really to provide an
education. It’s not to teach students how to get better work, but how to
provide banks with a free giveaway opportunity from the government, by
making junk loans that are defaulted on. The effect may be to wreck the
futures of the graduates that fall for the false promises that are being
made.
Bonnie Faulkner: The default rate on these student loans is pretty high, isn’t it?
Michael Hudson: High and rising.
Bonnie Faulkner: Then there’s also, I noticed,
something called a workout where they adjust your payment length and
other factors to keep you from defaulting.
Michael Hudson: They try to prevent defaults because
if banks show higher default rates, this gets the regulators to say,
“You’re going to need higher capital reserves against these default
rates.” So the banks say, “We’ll stretch out the loan. We’ll give you
more years to pay. We’ll slow it down.” But the workout just increases
the overall ultimate amount of debt service that has to be paid. It’s a
short-term solution.
That’s the problem with the financial sector. Banks and the financial
sector live in the short run, not the long run. In principle the
government is supposed to make regulations that help the economy over
time. But once it’s taken over by the financial sector, the government
lives in the short run too.
Bonnie Faulkner: There’s a technology boom in the San Francisco Bay area. Do you think this tech boom could be in a bubble?
Michael Hudson: It’s only a bubble if the prices of technology firms
are going up in the stock market.
Right now, the stock market is funded
on credit, just as the housing market and the student loan market. One
of the reasons the Federal Reserve is keeping the interest rates low
with Quantitative Easing and low interest rates is to keep sending the
flow of credit into the stock market.
The other dynamic keeping the stock market up – both for technology
stocks and others – is that companies are using a lot of their income
for stock buybacks and to pay out higher dividends, not make new
investment,. So to the extent that companies use financial engineering
rather than industrial engineering to increase the price of their stock
you’re going to have a bubble. But it’s not considered a bubble, because
the government is behind it, and it hasn’t burst yet. A bubble is only
called that after it bursts, after the insiders get out, leaving the
pension funds and small investors, Canadians and other naïve investors
holding the bag.
Bonnie Faulkner: In terms of keeping the stock market up, I thought that the Fed had ended QE.
Michael Hudson: QE is still going on. It means a
zero interest-rate policy. The aim is to hold interest rates low at 1/10
of a percent. The Federal Reserve continues to make sure that interest
rates are low, so we still have near-zero interest rates. And now
they’re even talking about negative interest rates to help spur Wall
Street gains.
Bonnie Faulkner: That was going to be my next
question: What is your opinion of these negative interest rates? There’s
a lot of talk of if you have a bank account you have to pay the bank
rather than vice versa.
Michael Hudson: The idea is, number one, that banks
won’t have to pay interest on your account. They’ll actually pay you
less and less, while they’re making 29% on many of their credit-card
loans, and while they’re making a killing on student loans. They can pay
you less while they make more, increasing their profit margins.
So that’s part of the problem, but the underlying strategy of the Fed
is to tell people, “Do you want your money to lose value in the bank,
or do you want to put it in the stock market?” They’re trying to push
money into the stock market, into hedge funds, to temporarily bid up
prices. Then, all of a sudden, the Fed can raise interest rates, let the
stock market prices collapse and the people will lose even more in the
stock market than they would have by the negative interest rates in the
bank. So it’s a pro-Wall Street financial engineering gimmick.
Bonnie Faulkner: That’s very interesting – the effect that a negative interest rate would have on stock market prices. I hadn’t thought of that.
Michael Hudson: They’re trying to convince people,
“Do you want your savings deposits to go down or do you want to get a
dividend return and buy stocks?” If a lot of money goes into the stock
market, it’ll push up prices, making money for stock speculators. Then
the insiders can decide that it’s time to sell out, and the market will
plunge.
Stocks always go down much faster than they go up. That’s why it’s
called a crash. People who put their money into the stocks will find,
all of a sudden, that stock prices are no longer being supported by the
debt leveraging that’s been holding them up.
Bonnie Faulkner: I understand that former Harvard
University president Larry Summers has proposed the banning of large
denomination currency, i.e., $100 bills. Similar proposals are being
made regarding the euro. What do you make of this?
Michael Hudson: I think something like
three-quarters of American currency is held abroad, by drug dealers, by
tax evaders, Russians and Chinese. Other people think that they want to
protect themselves against their own currency going down. When you have
75% of the currency and even more of the high-denomination $100 bills
held abroad, you wonder whether these are people we really want to pay.
If you get rid of the $100 bills, its foreign holders will be the main
losers.
During the Bush administration and the war in Iraq, whole planeloads
of shrink-wrapped $100 bills were used to buy off foreign officials and
soldiers that are now ISIS. They bought off the Sunni army, they bought
off the corrupt gangs, and essentially ISIS has been fueled by these
shrink-wrapped billions of $100 bills that the US used to pay them to
fight, people who wanted to control their own currency, or groups that
want to be independent, such as Syria or Russia. So this basically is an
attempt to hurt drug dealers and people who America doesn’t like.
Bonnie Faulkner: I was thinking that banning these
larger denomination bills would take a lot of currency out of
circulation. It seems to me that it would hurt the-
Michael Hudson: This is not really currency that
circulates. It’s like the old joke about expensive vintage wine. Wine
prices will go up and once in a while somebody will buy a 50-year-old
bottle of wine and say, “Wait a minute. This has gone bad.” The answer
is, “Well, that wine isn’t for drinking; that’s for trading.” These $100
bills aren’t meant to circulate. They’re not to spend on goods and
services. They’re a store of value. They’re a form of saving.
Bonnie Faulkner: You know, Michael, when I’m in line
at, say, Costco here in California – it’s a big, major retail store – I
see people at the checkout counter pull out rolls of $100 bills to pay
their food bill with. It seems to me that $100 bills … Well, now that
prices of food basically are so high people actually use these bills.
Michael Hudson: That’s correct, but the people who
use these bills, that’s only about 10 or 15% of all the $100 bills that
are in circulation. The vast majority of $100 bills are abroad, not in
the United States. So yes, of course there’s a use here but nowhere near
as much as there’s a use for $100 bills abroad.
By contrast, in China the largest denomination bill they have is 100
yen, and that’s maybe $7. So here you have a whole economy working with
only a $7 note as the largest denomination. The euro wants to get rid of
the 500-euro bill just as the United States years ago got rid of the
$1,000 bill because only the criminals used $1,000 bills.
Bonnie Faulkner: Don’t you also think, though, that
getting rid of $100 bills is going to hurt the little guy, maybe the guy
that’s working for cash under the table, maybe they’re skirting taxes.
Wouldn’t banning $100 bills also hurt the people that are on the edge to
begin with?
Michael Hudson: It’s not that hard to have two
fifties instead of a hundred. It really isn’t that hard to use smaller
denominations. That’s why I mentioned China.
Bonnie Faulkner: The price of oil is very low by
historical standards. There are even reports of a gasoline glut in
addition to an oil glut. Is the low oil price due to speculation or
oversupply?
Michael Hudson: High prices can be the result of
speculation, and maybe plunging prices can be attributed to the end of
speculation, but low prices over time aren’t caused by speculation.
That’s oversupply, mainly by Saudi Arabia flooding the market with
low-priced oil to discourage rival oil producers, whether it’s Russian
oil or American fracking.
Bonnie Faulkner: What does the price of oil have to do with debt deflation? Is there a relationship there?
Michael Hudson: No, it’s different. Debt deflation
is when there’s less money that people have to spend out of their
paychecks on goods and services, because they’re paying the FIRE sector.
Oil going down is a function of the supply and demand of oil in the
market. It’s a separate phenomenon.
Bonnie Faulkner: So the oil glut is real, that there’s too much oil?
Michael Hudson: Yes, it’s real.
Bonnie Faulkner: I see. Okay. And then, of course, perhaps the
lower oil prices – and you mentioned Saudi Arabia flooding the market
with oil – that this could also constitute, do you think, a financial
war against Russia and Venezuela? I guess you’ve implied that.
Michael Hudson: That’s why the United States wasn’t
unhappy to see this. So yes, it’s a kind of war. Recently, there have
been a lot of talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia to try to resolve
this.
Bonnie Faulkner: What about fracking and tar sands and new technology in general? What effect does new technology have on the oil price?
Michael Hudson: It increased fracking and therefore
it increased the supply of oil and gas, so it’s contributed to part of
the oversupply. But because it was very high-priced oil and gas, it has
not really been responsible for the flooding of the market. It’s below
the cost of fracking production.
In other words, oil now, as a result of the Saudi production, is
priced so low that there are not going to be new fracking investments
made. A lot of companies that have gone into fracking are heavily
debt-leveraged, and are beginning to default on their loans. The next
wave of defaults that banks are talking about is probably going to be in
the fracking industry. When the costs of production are so much more
than they can end up getting for the oil, they just stop producing and
stop paying their loans.
Bonnie Faulkner: With the price of oil lower than the cost of production, is this a dangerous situation for the economy in general or not?
Michael Hudson: Not for the economy in general, no.
Only for the frackers. I think the less fracking there is, the better it
is for the economy and society. You have a choice. Either you can have
more oil, or more clean water. Fracking is not good for the water
supply. So nothing could be better for the economy than to get rid of
fracking. What’s bad for the frackers usually is good for the rest of
the world.
Bonnie Faulkner: I had asked you about re-inflating commodity
prices, and you said that it’s hard to inflate commodity prices without
massive hoarding. How do you mean?
Michael Hudson: In the case of the oil spike a few
years ago, there have been a number of studies that have showed that
almost all of the demand for oil that suddenly pushed prices up was
speculative demand. People began to speculate not only in stocks and
bonds and real estate, but also in commodities. The market went up for
old tankers, which were used simply to store oil in. A lot of the oil
was simply being stored for trading, not used.
The same thing happened in the metals market. Speculators were buying
metals simply to store away, thinking that maybe they can push the
price up. I remember 50 years ago when the price of silver went up from
about $3 an ounce to almost $50 an ounce. At that time, only the small
buyers and the Canadians were buying silver, and then it was all left to
collapse back to about $3 an ounce. So you have speculative binges in
these.
I don’t think that governments should permit speculation in raw
materials, because they’re what the economy basically needs. The effect
of metals speculation was to push up the prices that China had to pay to
countries like Australia. This squeezed China. Once the speculative
demand ended, all of a sudden the added production facilities that had
been brought into production by the high prices went out of production
again, and there was a glut.
Bonnie Faulkner: The price of gold is going back up. To what do you attribute the reversal in gold prices?
Michael Hudson: There are so many currency exchange
rate problems that people are buying gold as a safe haven. Right now,
gold looks like a safe haven if international exchange rates break down.
The United States is pushing as policy division of the world into rival
currency camps – the dollar area on the one hand, and the
Russia-Chinese-Shanghai Cooperation Organization group on the other,
especially now that the IMF has changed its rules. People think that if
there are rival currency groupings and national currencies are going
bust, we might as well use gold as a safe haven.
Bonnie Faulkner: We did an entire program on the
change in IMF rules. That was very important. In terms of these rival
currency camps, I guess you see the international financial system
breaking down. What do you think the timeline is going to be on this?
It’s already starting, right?
Michael Hudson: Probably later this afternoon.
[Laughing.] I mean, it’s ongoing. Look at Ukraine.
Its currency, the
hernia (as the hryvnia is affectionately known) is plunging. The euro is
really in a problem. Greece is problematic as to whether it can pay the
IMF, which is threatening not to be part of the troika with the
European Central Bank and the European Union making more loans to enable
Greece to pay the bondholders and the banks. Britain is having a
referendum as to whether to withdraw from the European Union, and it
looks more and more like it may do so. So the world’s politics are in
turmoil, not to mention the Mideast, where the US has mounted attacks
from Libya to Iraq to Syria, and ISIS is attacking governments in
today’s pipeline rivalry.
Bonnie Faulkner: Do you think the United States is conducting a financial war against Europe?
Michael Hudson: That’s a byproduct. The financial
war is aimed first of all at China and secondly at Russia. Europe is the
collateral damage in this, because the natural geopolitical arrangement
is for Europe to be part of Eurasia, especially for Germany to develop
trade and investment relationships with Russia. But US opposition to
Russia and China has entailed sanctions against Russia, and Russia in
turn has made counter-sanctions against Europe. So Europe is essentially
sacrificing its opportunities for trade and investment in order to
remain part of NATO. It is also agreeing to bomb Syria and the Near
East, creating a wave of refugees that it doesn’t know what to do with.
It’s amazing that Europe says, “What are we going to do with these
refugees?” It’s as if it doesn’t realize that being part of NATO and
bombing these countries forces them to choose to live by fleeing, or to
stay and get bombed. Europe is creating the flight of refugees that’s
tearing it apart politically, and leading rightwing nationalist parties
to gain power to withdraw from the Eurozone.
So Europe is acting in a very self-destructive manner, but is doing
so because it’s trying to be loyal to the United States. Most of the
European leaders look at themselves as having to follow the United
States, because if the US opposes them, there will be a regime change.
Bonnie Faulkner: It seems as if the United States is
willing to sacrifice Germany and the rest of Europe to conduct this war
against Russia and China.
Michael Hudson: When you say the United States,
we’re talking about really the neocons and a particular group within the
U.S. Government. The neocons are led by the old Bush-Cheney people,
including Obama and Hillary Clinton, who is to the right of Cheney.
Hillary says that we should go back into Libya, that we should fight
even more, and that Putin is Hitler. That means that when she comes to
power you can be pretty sure that there’ll be a confrontation. If there
is, a number of former generals in America have been warning that the
chances of atomic war have never been higher. If Hillary gets in,
Russia’s going to go on an immediate nuclear alert and there’s a good
chance of war.
But Hillary is not the United States, although the United
States may end up electing her, in which case, in my mind, there’ll be a
disaster.
Bonnie Faulkner: Yes, it’s very terrifying, the
prospect of her becoming president. She’s very scary. You say that the
real economy is suffering debt deflation, and by the real economy you
mean goods and services and real production not the asset markets of the
1%. So then, would you say that there are two different economies?
Michael Hudson: That’s the essence of the book that
I’m writing. That was what I was describing in The Bubble and Beyond,
and later in Killing the Host. Most people think of the economy as
producing goods and services and paying labor to buy what it produces.
But a growing part of the economy in every country has been the Finance,
Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector, which comprises the rent and
interest paid to the economy’s balance sheet of assets by debtors and
rent payers. More and more money is being extracted from the production
and consumption economy to pay the FIRE sector. That’s what causes debt
deflation and shrinks markets. If you pay the banks, you have less to
spend on goods and services.
Bonnie Faulkner: You have said that one could even
say that China’s slowdown is a reflection of lower exports to the US and
Europe as their economies shrink. In what ways would you say that our
economy is shrinking? How would you describe it?
Michael Hudson: Well, employment, wage levels and
overall wage payments for starters. And then, the shrinking proportion
of net income available for spending after paying debts and real estate
costs. If you look at payments to labor as a proportion of national
income or gross domestic product, you find profits going way up,
investment and savings going up. All the growth in the last 10 years of
the economy, the rise in national income, has gone to the 1%, not to the
99%.
So when I say the economy is shrinking, it’s the economy of the 99%,
the people who have to work for a living and depend on earning money for
what they can spend. The 1% makes its money basically by lending out
their money to the 99%, on charging interest and speculating. So the
stock market’s doubled, the bond market’s gone way up, and the 1% are
earning more money than ever before, but the 99% are not. They’re having
to pay the 1%.
So there are two economies, not only of the 1% and the 99%, but a
division between the economy of consumption and production – consumer
spending and tangible capital investment on the one hand – and payments
to finance, insurance and real estate on the other. That includes
healthcare, insurance, and also FICA wage withholding to produce more of
a budget surplus enabling the government to cut taxes on the higher
income brackets.
They’re also cutting back pensions. One of the big problems in
America’s economic polarization and shrinkage is that pensions can’t be
paid. So there are going to be defaults on pensions here, just like
Europeans are insisting on rolling back pensions. You can look at Greece
and Argentina as the future of America.
Bonnie Faulkner: Do you think that there is another
2008 crash in the making, and if so, will this one look a lot different
or will it be very similar?
Michael Hudson: Yes. It’d have to be very similar.
The problems of 2008 were never cured. The Federal Reserve’s solution to
the crisis was to lend the economy enough money to borrow its way out
of debt. It thought that if it could subsidize banks lending homeowners
enough money to buy houses from people who are defaulting, then the bank
balance sheets would end up okay.
But the volume of debt was never written down. Mathematically, debts
grow exponentially at compound interest. Banks recycle the interest into
new loans, so debts grow exponentially, faster than the economy can
afford to pay.
You’re having this in Europe, causing instability with Greece, Spain,
and Portugal, even Italy now.
And you’re having it here. You’re also
having shrinking markets in Argentina, which has just voted in a
rightwing government and cut back spending. So you’re having government
spending on the economy being cut almost everywhere. That means that the
only source of spending for growth has to come from borrowing from the
banking system.
Bonnie Faulkner: So then if there is another 2008 crash in the making, you think it will look similar to what happened then?
Michael Hudson: Yes, that’s how it happens. It’ll be yet more real estate going down, more bankruptcies, and more government giveaways.
Bonnie Faulkner: I remember at that time, in 2008, the money market froze up. I remember this. It was really alarming.
Michael Hudson: This is why there’s been so much
money going into treasury securities. Right now you can buy treasury
securities and after you pay the management fees, whether it’s to
Vanguard or someone else, you get a fraction of 1%, maybe a fraction of
0.1% in interest. People are putting their money into treasuries because
they worry that the risk of putting their money into the bond market,
the stock market or even the money markets is very high.
So Vanguard, for instance, which is one of the largest money
management companies and best for the people – if you have a retirement
account, Vanguard is no longer accepting treasury bond accounts into the
overall money market because so much money is going in wanting to play
it safe, that there aren’t enough treasury bonds to absorb all of this
flight to safety.
Bonnie Faulkner: Wow. So then would you say it’s only a question of time before we hit another financial panic?
Michael Hudson: Yes.
Bonnie Faulkner: What do you make of this Panama offshore banking haven that has hit the news?
Michael Hudson: I haven’t followed it that closely,
because I’ve been working on completing by the end of the summer the new
book that I’m coming out with, J is for Junk Economics. So I really
haven’t followed it. Apparently the Atlantic Council and the US
Government have wanted to expose certain politicians who are not on its
favorite list. So it’s part of a political stunt.
I notice that in the news they keep talking about Vladimir Putin,
although he hasn’t been tied at all directly to this. There’s so much
propaganda in the way that the popular press has been treating this that
it’s hard for me to make head or tail of it.
Bonnie Faulkner: That’s right. The propaganda in the
mainstream news is actually quite important, because in order to try
and figure out anything, you have to try and decide what’s real and what
isn’t. And so much of it isn’t real.
Michael Hudson: I guess the main thing that came out of the
Panama Papers was that Ukrainian President Poroshenko had promised to
divest of his chocolate company and instead, he simply moved it into an
offshore account. And on the very day that he was increasing the attacks
on the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine, the export sector, he was
signing documents to conceal his own money offshore. So the exposé of
the Panama money laundering has hit some of the dictators that America
is protecting and promoting.
Bonnie Faulkner: Would you like to describe your new book, Michael?
Michael Hudson: It’s basically a set of definitions
on junk economics and showing that what people usually receive in the
mainstream is what George Orwell would call Doublethink. It’s euphemism.
When people are running up more and more debt for housing, they call
that “real wealth.” It exposes what’s wrong in mainstream economics and
why most of the economics that justifies austerity programs and economic
shrinkage in the textbooks is not scientific. Junk economics denies the
role of debt and denies the fact that the economic system we have now
is dysfunctional.
Bonnie Faulkner: Is there anything that you would
like to say that you think is most important for people to understand
about the present economy?
Michael Hudson: Just that the economy is being run
primarily by the banks for their own interest. The bank’s product is
debt, because the banks want to make sure that they can get paid for the
debt.
But ultimately the only party that can pay the debt is the
government, because it runs the printing presses. So the debts
ultimately either are paid by the government, or they’re paid by a huge
transfer of property from debtors to creditors – or, the debts are
written off. Throughout history, the only way of restoring stability is
to write down the debts. That is treated now as if it’s something that
can’t be done. But it’s the only thing that’s going to revive the
economy.
Bonnie Faulkner: Michael Hudson, thank you very much.
Michael Hudson: It’s good to be here, Bonnie.
* * * * *
I’ve been speaking with Dr. Michael Hudson. Today’s show has
been: The Slow Crash. Dr. Hudson is a financial economist and historian.
He is President of the Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic
Trend, a Wall Street financial analyst and Distinguished Research
Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. His
1972 book, Super-Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire,
is a critique of how the United States exploited foreign economies
through the IMF and World Bank. He is also author of Trade, Development
and Foreign Debt and The Myth of Aid among many others. His latest book
is Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the Global
Economy. Due out soon, J Is for Junk Economics. Dr. Hudson acts as an
economic advisor to governments worldwide, including Iceland, Latvia and
China, on finance and tax law. Visit his website at Michael-Hudson.com.
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TWSP/UFAA Morning Briefing for Wednesday, June 22, 2016
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BREXIT
A RECIPE FOR WORLD CHAOS, REVIVING SCOTTISH SECESSIONISM AND
EXACERBATING EU BREAKUP; BRITISH SECESSION FROM EUROPEAN UNION COULD
TRIGGER NEW SYSTEMIC CRISIS OF WORLD FINANCIAL SYSTEM; VOTE WILL SHOW IF
PRO-CHINESE GEOPOLITICAL ADVENTURIST FACTION PREVAILS OVER TRADITIONAL
PARASITIZING OF EUROPE AND US AMONG LONDON FINANCIER OLIGARCHY; AS WITH
TRUMP, EXTREMIST BANKERS USE CRAZED PETTY-BOURGEOIS DUPES TO IMPLEMENT
THEIR POLICY; BRITISH WORKERS STAND TO LOSE DEFENSE OF EU SOCIAL
REGULATIONS