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Middle East, Sep 13, '13, Putin eyes Obama's Iran file, By M K Bhadrakumar
When Kathleen Trola McFarland, the familiar Fox News national security analyst who served in national security posts in the Nixon, Ford and Reagan administrations and was an aide to Henry Kissinger at the White House, wrote that "Vladimir Putin is the one who really deserves the Nobel Peace Prize", she obviously had the Syrian crisis in mind.
McFarland wrote on Tuesday, "In one of the most deft diplomatic maneuvers of all time, Russia's President Putin has saved the world from near-certain disaster."
She went on to narrate how Secretary of State John Kerry's famous gaffe in London took wings and "the off-hand phrase was picked up by Putin, became a Kerry Proposal and ultimately the Obama peace plan..."
Following up on her train of thought, it is easy to see how by the time this momentous week draws to a close Putin could doubly ensure his claim to a Nobel.
The point is that a major highlight of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's annual summit gathering in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, promises to be an event on Friday on its sidelines - the scheduled "bilateral" meeting between Putin and his Iranian counterpart, newly elected Hassan Rouhani. The Putin-Rouhani meeting in Bishkek is a scheduled one, planned well in advance. Both statesmen are vastly experienced in international diplomacy.
As he winds his way back to his work station in the wooded estate of Novo-Ogaryovo after picking Rouhani's brains, Putin will begin choreographing in the privacy of his thoughts yet another peace plan - Iran.
This will be Putin's first meeting with the newly elected Iranian president. The Rouhani presidency has aroused worldwide interest as presaging a meaningful US-Iran engagement, and Rouhani has been signaling in many ways Tehran's renewed interest in negotiating with the West - through policy pronouncements, cabinet appointments or sheer diplomatic "body language". Rouhani has pledged that the revival of the Iranian economy is his priority for which he would seek a favorable external environment.
The good thing is that the Barack Obama administration realizes the limits of US military power to intimidate or vanquish Iran. Yet, like in the case with Syria, Obama is vacillating and is unable to take the leap of faith. It is a carbon copy of the dilemma he faced over Syria.
War weariness amongst the American public, pressure from the hawkish regional allies and their lobbies in the US, a dangerous regional milieu, an adversary's proven grit to retaliate against aggression, overwhelming international opinion favoring dialogue - all the ingredients are there.
Putin could be sensing already that it is high time that someone helped Obama make up his mind - or rather, to pursue the natural inclinations of his mind.
As in the case of the Russian plan on Syria's chemical weapons, there is a two- to three-year-old Russian blueprint already lying for a starter - an incremental approach of Iran responding to the international community's concerns and the US step-by-step dismantling the sanctions regime and allowing Iran's full integration as a regional power.
The US and Iran are warily probing each other's intentions, and any keen observer of the three-decade old stand-off would sense that the diplomatic idiom is changing. The US no longer opposes Iran's inclusion in any Geneva 2 talks on Syria.
Tehran too has taken a highly nuanced position on the issue of Syria's chemical weapons. It has held a delicate line that, alas, the wily Gulf Arab sheikhs trapped Obama. In an extraordinary interview with Press TV on Wednesday, Iran's savvy Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said,
I think that a number of groups, people inside the United States, and interests outside the United States, wanted to put the president of the US - whom I believe was reluctant to start the war - into a trap, a trap which he had unfortunately laid down for himself; and that was to get him involved in a war in order to address a hypothetical issue of the use of chemical weapons by the government of Syria.
Iran has been quick to express solid support for the Russian plan on Syria's chemical weapons.
Suffice to say, today's meeting in Bishkek between the Russian and Iranian presidents has a regional backdrop. An engagement of the Syrian regime by the Obama administration becomes inevitable once the Russian plan is fleshed out and advances to the implementation stage.
For one thing, the Russian plan simply has to go hand in hand with a Geneva 2 process. Its implementation is going to be a long haul. It took four years for Washington to take out of Germany the US' cold-war era stockpiles of 100,000 chemical weapons stockpile. When the operation began in 1986, a six-year timeline for implementation was envisaged.
That is to say, there is going to be a critical necessity for the established state structures in Syria to be around for a while if only for the implementation of the Russian plan. Put differently, the "regime change" agenda gets pushed to the backburner and whatever democratic transition is possible in the civil war conditions cannot but involve the Syrian regime.
Tehran, no doubt, is keenly watching. Russia's firm stance on Syria during the crisis period since the US began assembling an armada in the Eastern Mediterranean cannot but impress Iran, for which regime change in Damascus also has existential overtones.
This is where it will see that a revival of the strategic partnership with Russia is an imperative. From Iran's viewpoint, it is the Russian connection that would be a "force multiplier" when it begins to negotiate with the "P5+1" (the US, Britain, France, Russia and China plus Germany) format and with the US directly.
Rouhani would weigh in that even as his credibility as a negotiator is rising in Western eyes, his capacity to negotiate significantly gains out of a strengthening of the Iran-Russia relations at this juncture.
Here, it takes two to tango. Looking back, Putin's visit to Iran in 2007, the first by a Kremlin leader since Joseph Stalin's in 1943, had raised high hopes of a historic turn in the bilateral relationship and of a new template in the geopolitics of the vast space the two countries overlap in and around the "Heartland" - Central Asia and the Caspian, Caucasus and the Middle East.
But in the event, these hopes remain unfulfilled. Putin left the Kremlin in 2008. During Dmitry Medvedev's presidency once the Russia-US "reset" appeared and the Iran question became a real-time talking point between the two powers, the calculus of Russian-Iranian ties changed.
Indeed, the pro-Western groups of the Russian elite gained ascendancy in the Kremlin. Soon, a transactional dispute arose over Russia's non-fulfillment of the contract for supply of S-300 missiles to Iran. Russia insisted it acted under the UN sanctions, but Tehran saw the "hidden hand" of the US and Israel. Meanwhile, the steady worsening of the situation around the Iran nuclear issue introduced limits to engaging that country, given the international ramifications.
It stands to reason that unlike Medvedev, perhaps, Putin himself is acutely conscious that Iran is what American geo-strategists would call a "pivotal state".
Interestingly, it didn't cross Putin's mind at all that the former president, Mahmud Ahmedinejad, was already a "lame duck" when they met in the Kremlin in July on the sidelines of the Caspian summit. Putin plunged with gusto into substantive discussions regarding ways to revive and strengthen a Russian-Iranian alliance, including a Russian-built second nuclear power plant in Iran.
Equally, Tehran would have noted the huge shift in the respective Russian approaches to the regime-change agenda in Libya (March 2011) and in Syria today.
Paradoxically, the Rouhani presidency brings Iran much closer to Russia in its "de-ideologized" foreign-policy outlook. Indeed, Russia doesn't view the world through any ideological "East-West" prism. Nor is it enchanted by the ideas of "resistance" and "justice" that fired up Ahmedinejad, but which Rouhani is gradually relegating to the backburner.
It is inconceivable that, like Putin's Russia, which scrupulously avoids the Soviet overreach, Rouhani's Iran also will ever set aside national interests as the paramount consideration in foreign policy even while involved in regional security issues.
Rouhani is also wedded to globalization and neo-liberal policies as Russia is, and both see innovation of the economy as the core objective of national policies. Putin's first priority has always been to work toward an equal partnership with the West, and he never tires of looking for windows of opportunity. The approach of Rouhani, who arrives on American soil in a few days to attend the UN General Assembly session in New York, is much the same.
In sum, both Iran and Russia are in a frame of mind that is conducive to reviving their strategic partnership. The only way Obama can stall a Nobel for Putin seems to be by pre-empting the Kremlin from launching yet another irresistible peace plan.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar served as a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service for over 29 years, with postings including India's ambassador to Uzbekistan (1995-1998) and to Turkey (1998-2001).
(Copyright 2013 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-130913.html
[SIDEBAR:Beatrice,
Yes Ramona?
What do you INTUIT 'sense' is happening in the globalists' New World HOLOCAUST Disorder?
For one very important consideration is the information is at long last getting to enough people to make the difference in the paradigm shift. The shift had already happened, well into early Century Twenty, but the humans that were in control of how humans 'live' AND especially the learning how to assimilate experience and then translate the vibrations into understanding - knowledge - MUST alchemy into wisdom ... the 'controllers' of earth for far too long in the tooth, now we can see what we get, the world .. sees what it gets. CHAOS isn't disorder, but of course. Chaos is the energy which is real and the subtle of the energy is also real.
VLADIMIR V. PUTIN is a practitioner of martial arts. Perhaps he is our first real leader in earth's time, for the history annals this period in cycles of learning, he is, President Vladimir V. Putin, THE FIRST 'enlightened' leader in our heavenly reality in earth.
VLADIMIR V. PUTIN is a man. He understands this basic drive to be and also, he has learned there are more than just the molecules of our bodies, minds, spirits, and the mystery can't be undone or overdone and in fact the mystery is never done.
Living in the life earth experience isn't easy. Where's the manual in being human! We the species in earth so many, countless numbers and yet the secrets of the mystery are well kept trusts.
Trusting in those that can see the light and not wallowing in the dark. Vladimir V. Putin grew up in the time of one of the worst of the ROTHSCHILDS' DICTATORS - STALIN. This experience obviously allowed PUTIN to understand the truth in the trust of reality.
Reality is not a mad humans' corrupted, distorted, criminally insane imaginings. All humans have imagination and the time of this Jewry political ZIONIST WORLD DICTATORSHIP is proof the imaginings of the controllers in this period cycle of earth's turning on its' axis in the universe, aren't able to be the totalitarian GOD/S of earth that the criminally insane decided.
IT is criminally insane to take a boy or a baby child of any 'sex' and make them into the commodity that the so called 'rich' in the earth have decided as ITS' new world order dictator puppet.
RICH? LAUGH OUT LOUD AND THROW-UP. How did this get decided as a proof in earth to be the 'money' or whatever 'THING' is CHOSEN!?? to be worshiped as though above the mystery of creation. Good heavens this is the TWENTY FIRST CENTURY.
ISRAEL TRANSPARENCY IN ALL FACETS OF ITS' SKULLDUGGERY: WEAPONS, MONEY, FRAUD POTUS#44, AND ON IT GOES THE 'OWNERS' OF CRIMINAL INSANITY NOW STAND AND BECOME REAL!
EARTH LIFE is not an easy trek and the MARTIAL ARTS are the tap root in how to understand more fully how to choose and lose and wobble and stumble-fall, then to get back into the balance of the mystery and weep for the salvation of peace to wash over our mistakes of being an engineered human that chooses natural reality.
The ZIONIST CRIMINALLY INSANE could not be stopped. The STINK of Hitler was too evil to really turnaround. Artistry of taking the JEW and making this a CHOSEN poor victim, a bigger martyr than the CHRIST. This was genuinely an act of pure imagination and LORD LORD how it has worked. ROCKEFELLERS of course purchased the BAPTIST CHURCH and so WTF do we have in the USA? An apartheid in every 'system' imagined. LAW is only allowed to be spoken via the CLASS OF BRITISH ACCREDITED REGISTRY (BAR) and on the corrupted ideologies of what should have been a foundation of ongoing raw power refined via culture. CULT? CULTURE? Jewry Politics and Zionist New World Order has all but sent the earth into an orbit of nuclear winter. The EARTH has spoken and does not choose the fraud of Jewish First Black President USA #44 MANCHURIAN PUPPET.
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| ... Putin could be sensing already that it is high time that someone helped Obama make up his mind - or rather, to pursue the natural inclinations of his mind .... |
FIRST REALITY IN ENTERING EARTH REALITY IS PHYSICS TO KNOW WHAT 'SEX' WE ARE. This natural choice has been contaminated and one most heinous way this was-is: METZITZAH B'PEH.
FORESKINS ON MALES IS NATURAL, A BORN WITH TRUE REALITY.
Now what monster decide to do this? We all know now that the internet was introduced to set us free.
http://theartof12.blogspot.com/2013/08/hac-what.html
http://www.mediafire.com/play/2e14pdyrby09er3/wujo3242012peniscon.mp3
http://theartof12.blogspot.com/2013/08/timothy-f-geither-larry-summers-us.html
Real is real and the earth's nature isn't going to prefer artificial because it's just not real.
GREEN & AGENDA 21: GENOCIDE and in this we can trust the Jewry Political BLOB with the ZIONIST SLOBS and all the STINKS, TO SELL US DEATH CULT-CULTURE and in this we can know by the ongoing truth in trusting our sense to intuit the whole truth.
BELOW are how the human being can do the best we can ... choosing natural isn't a lifestyle it's a root in deep mysterious energies. PRESIDENT VLADIMIR V. PUTIN IS IN THE PERPETUAL BALANCE IN THE MYSTERY, THANK THE UNIVERSE!]
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