The Global De-dollarization and the US Policies
In
its quest for world domination, which the White House has been pursuing
for more than a century, it relied on two primary tools: the US dollar
and military might. In order to prevent Washington from establishing
complete global hegemony, certain countries have recently been revising
their positions towards these two elements by developing alternative
military alliances and by breaking with their dependence on the US
dollar.
Until the mid-twentieth century, the gold standard was the dominant monetary system, based
on a fixed quantity of gold reserves stocked in national banks, which
limited lending. At that time, the United States managed to become the
owner of 70% of world’s gold reserves (excluding the USSR), therefore it
pushed its weakened competitor, the UK, aside resulting to the creation
of the Bretton Woods financial system in 1944. That’s how the US dollar
became the predominant currency for international payments.
But
a quarter century later this system had proven ineffective due to its
inability to contain the economic growth of Germany and Japan, along
with the reluctance of the US to adjust its economic policies to
maintain the dollar-gold balance. At that time, the dollar experienced a
dramatic decline but it was saved by the support of rich oil exporters,
especially once Saudi Arabia began to exchange its black gold for US
weapons and support in talks with Richard Nixon. As a result, President
Richard Nixon in 1971 unilaterally ordered the cancellation of the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold,
and instead he established the Jamaican currency system in which oil
has become the foundation of the US dollar system. Therefore, it’s no
coincidence that from that moment on the control over oil trade has
become the number one priority of Washington’s foreign policy. In the
aftermath of the so-called Nixon Shock the number of US military
engagements in the Middle East and other oil producing regions saw a
sharp increase. Once this system was supported by OPEC members, the
global demand for US petrodollars hit an all time high. Petrodollars
became the basis for America domination over the global financial system
which resulted in countries being forced to buy dollars in order to get
oil on the international market.
Analysts
believe that the share of the United States in today’s world gross
domestic product shouldn’t exceed 22%. However, 80% of international
payments are made with US dollars. As a result, the value of the US
dollar is exceedingly high in comparison with other currencies, that’s
why consumers in the United States receive imported goods at extremely
low prices. It provides the United States with significant financial
profit, while high demand for dollars in the world allows the US
government to refinance its debt at very low interest rates.
Under these
circumstances, those heding against the dollar are considered a direct
threat to US economic hegemony and the high living standards of its
citizens, and therefore political and business circles in Washington
attempt by all means to resist this process.This resistance manifested
itself in the overthrow and the brutal murder of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who decided to switch to Euros for oil payments, before introducing a gold dinar to replace the European currency.
However,
in recent years, despite Washington’s desire to use whatever means to
sustain its position within the international arena, US policies are
increasingly faced with opposition. As a result, a growing number of
countries are trying to move from the US dollar along with its
dependence on the United States, by pursuing a policy of de-dollarization.
Three states that are particularly active in this domain are China,
Russia and Iran. These countries are trying to achieve de-dollarization
at a record pace, along with some European banks and energy companies
that are operating within their borders.
The
Russian government held a meeting on de-dollarization in spring of
2014, where the Ministry of Finance announced the plan to increase the
share of ruble-denominated contracts and the consequent abandonment of
dollar exchange. Last May at the Shanghai summit, the Russian delegation
manged to sign the so-called “deal of the century” which implies that
over the next 30 years China will buy $ 400 billion worth of Russia’s
natural gas, while paying in rubles and yuans. In
addition, in August 2014 a subsidiary company of Gazprom announced its
readiness to accept payment for 80,000 tons of oil from Arctic deposits
in rubles that were to be shipped to Europe, while the payment for the
supply of oil through the “Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean” pipeline can
be transferred in yuans. Last August while
visiting the Crimea, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin announced that
“the petrodollar system should become history” while “Russia is
discussing the use of national currencies in mutual settlements with a
number of countries.” These steps recently taken by Russia are the real
reasons behind the West’s sanction policy.
In
recent months, China has also become an active member of this
“anti-dollar” campaign, since it has signed agreements with Canada and
Qatar on national currencies exchange, which resulted in Canada becoming
the first offshore hub for the yuan in North America. This fact alone
can potentially double or even triple the volume of trade between the
two countries since the volume of the swap agreement signed between
China and Canada is estimated to be a total of 200 billion yuans.
China’s
agreement with Qatar on direct currency swaps between the two countries
are the equivalent of $ 5.7 billion and has cast a heavy blow to the
petrodollar becoming the basis for the usage of the yuan in Middle East
markets. It is no secret that the oil-producing countries of the Middle
Eastern region have little trust in the US dollar due to the export of
inflation, so one should expect other OPEC countries to sign agreements
with China.
As
for the Southeast Asia region, the establishment of a clearing center
in Kuala Lumpur, which will promote greater use of the yuan locally, has
become yet another major step that was made by China in the region.
This event occurred in less than a month after the leading financial
center of Asia – Singapore – became a center of the yuan exchange in
Southeast Asia after establishing direct dialogue regarding the
Singapore dollar and the yuan.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has recently announced its reluctance to use US dollars in its foreign trade. Additionally, the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev has recently tasked the National Bank with the de-dollarization of the national economy.
All
across the world, the calls for the creation of a new international
monetary system are getting louder with each passing day. In this
context it should be noted that the UK government plans to release debts
denominated in yuans while the European Central Bank is discussing the
possibility of including the yuan in its official reserves.
Those
trends are to be seen everywhere, but in the midst of anti-Russian
propaganda, Western newsmakers prefer to keep quiet about these facts,
in particular, when inflation is skyrocketing in the United States. In
recent months, the proportion of US Treasury bonds in the Russian
foreign exchange reserves has been shrinking rapidly, being sold at a
record pace, while this same tactic has been used by a number of
different states.
To
make matters worse for the US, many countries seek to export their gold
reserves from the United States, which are deposited in vaults at the
Federal Reserve Bank. After a scandal of 2013, when the US Federal
Reserve refused to return German gold reserves to its respective owner,
the Netherlands have joined the list of countries that are trying to
retrieve their gold from the US. Should it be successful the list of
countries seeking the return of gold reserves will double which may
result in a major crisis for Washington.
The
above stated facts indicate that the world does not want to rely on US
dollars anymore. In these circumstances, Washington relies on the policy
of deepening regional destabilization, which, according to the White
House strategy, must lead to a considerable weakening of any potential
US rivals. But there’s little to no hope for the United States to
survive its own wave of chaos it has unleashed across the world.
Vladimir Odintsov, political commentator, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook” http://journal-neo.org/2015/02/02/rus-dedollarizatsiya-i-ssha/
The USA Debt Time-bomb Tocking, Ticking, Tock, Tick…
Most
of the world has an image of the United States as the one country of
the advanced industrial world that took consequent action in the wake of
the March 2007-September 2008 financial crisis. The result, we are
carefully led to believe—via the politically ever-correct mainstream
media like The New York Times or the CNBC financial network or
Bloomberg—is that American banks and corporations today are back on
their feet, healthy, robust. We are led to believe that eight years of
Obama Administration economic genius have produced near-all-time low
unemployment as the US leads the way among the G-7 to healthy growth.
Only one thing wrong with this picture—it’s a complete, fabricated lie,
fabricated by Washington with the collusion of the Wall Street banks and
the Federal Reserve. The reality is pretty scary for those living in
ignorance. The cracks now emerging in an unprecedented level of US
corporate debt are flashing red alert on a new economic crisis, a very,
very ugly one.
Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman
once made the stupid argument that “debt doesn’t matter.” Dick Cheney
back during the 2002 Washington budget debates over the wisdom of making
new tax cuts amid huge costs to finance the new Washington War on
Terror, made the equally stupid comment, “Reagan proved that deficits
don’t matter.” In the real world, where debts of private households, of
governments like Greece or Portugal or Detroit City, or private
corporations like Chesapeake Energy or General Motors, effect jobs,
technology, entire communities or nations, debt certainly does matter.
Corporate Debt Time Bomb
Even more dangerous than the enormous
rise in US National Debt since 2000, to levels today of over $19
trillion or 108% of GDP, is the alarming rise since 2007 in US debt of
corporations, excluding banks. As of the second quarter of 2015
high-grade companies tracked by JPMorgan Chase paid $119 billion in
interest expenses over the year, the most in debt service costs since
2000. Disturbing is that that was despite record low debt borrowing
costs of 3%. US corporations took advantage of the Fed’s unprecedented
near-zero interest rates to borrow up to the hilt. It made sense were
the economy really improving. Now with a significant recession looming
in the USA, the debt is suddenly a problem. i
This is the true reason the Fed is unable to raise interest rates
beyond the purely symbolic 0.25% last December. The US corporate debt
pyramid would topple. Yet the zero interest rates are wreaking havoc for
those investors or insurance companies invested in bonds for
“security.”
Now signs are appearing that point to
very serious developing corporate debt problems. Delinquencies–late debt
repayments of 30 days or more–in the US corporate sector are rising
significantly in recent months. In a genuine economic recovery, business
debt delinquencies fall, as all ships are floated by a rising tide of
recovery. Delinquencies are costly and avoided whenever possible. An
early sign of a weakening economy on the other hand, is a rise in
corporate debt delinquencies. Delinquencies lead to defaults lead to
corporate bankruptcy of not reversed by an improving economic
environment. And the real US economic environment is anything but
improving.
A recent analysis by US economist
Michael Synder compared business debt delinquencies in 2008 just before
the Lehman Brothers collapse. Then, delinquencies were rising at a very
frightening pace he notes, “and this was a very clear sign that big
trouble was ahead. Unfortunately for us, in 2016 business debt
delinquencies have already shot up above the level they were sitting at
just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and every time debt
delinquencies have ever gotten this high the US economy has always
fallen into recession.”
According to another analysis by Wolf
Richter, delinquencies of commercial and industrial loans at all US
banks, after hitting a low point in end of 2014 of $11.7 billion, have
begun to balloon. “Initially, this was due to the oil & gas fiasco,
but increasingly it’s due to trouble in many other sectors, including
retail. Between Q4 2014 and Q1 2016, delinquencies spiked 137% to $27.8
billion. They’re halfway toward to the all-time peak during the
Financial Crisis in Q3 2009 of $53.7 billion. And they’re higher than
they’d been in Q3 2008, just as Lehman Brothers had its moment.”
Richter also notes that the debt
problems are spreading to US farms which today are very much a corporate
business: “Slumping prices of agricultural commodities have done a job
on farmers, many of whom are good-sized enterprises. Farmland is also
owned by investors, including hedge funds, who’ve piled into it during
the boom, powered by the meme that land prices would soar for all times
because humans will always need food. Then they leased the land to
growers.” But as Richter relates, “Now there are reports that farmland,
in Illinois for example, goes through auctions at prices that are 20% or
even 30% below where they’d been a year ago. Land prices are adjusting
to lower farm incomes, which are lower because commodity prices have
plunged.
Now delinquencies of farmland loans and
agricultural loans are sending serious warning signals. These
delinquencies don’t hit the megabanks. They hit smaller specialized farm
lenders.” He notes that delinquencies of farmland loans jumped 37% from $1.19 billion in Q3 2015 to $1.64 billion in Q1 this year.
Zero rate bubble danger
Many think that the aim of the post-2008
Fed Zero Interest Rate Policy was to stimulate investment into the
economy to avert a new economic depression. Far from it. Since the first
onset of the US sub-prime real estate crisis in March 2007, total US
corporate debt levels, according to Standard & Poor’s, has ballooned
to an all-time high level of $6.6 trillion as of the beginning of this
year. In the past five years since 2011 alone corporate debt, amid
virtually free Fed-inspired interest rates after tax adjustments, has
increased by an eye-popping $2.8 trillion, at least 40% more net and
total debt than in 2007.
In 2016 the rise in corporate debt, annualized, is running at an
alarming $1.4 trillion annualized rate, nearly double the rate prior to
the financial collapse of September 2008.
Had that rise in corporate debt been
used, as was the prudent corporate norm until recently, to finance
plant, new more modern equipment and other long-term productive assets,
such debt would have generated an income flow that would suffice to
repay the debt, usually with a nice surplus profit to boot. It would
also have boosted job creation and real economic growth, not the faked
US Government virtual GDP growth.
This corporate debt binge has gone to
nothing so productive. Instead it’s fueling an out-of-control stock
market bubble, as seen in the all-time highs on the S&P 500 stock
index. Corporations are using their near-free debt to buy back their own
stock shares, a dubious practice which benefits only the stock price of
shareholders but adds not an ounce of net productive gain to the real
economy. Or it has gone to finance corporate mergers and takeovers,
which again do not add net gain to the real economy but rather the
opposite—job cuts, plant closings and asset strips. Highly profitable
for Wall Street and for financial operators, not for the real economy.
As a totality US corporations today have
a far greater vulnerability in terms of levels of debt in relation to
revenues or income than at the onset of the 2007-2008 financial tsunami.
The Federal Reserve, along with the
European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have reverted over the past
two years to the unprecedented and ludicrous policy of zero interest
rates to keep their financial Ponzi bubble inflating, not bursting. The
ECB and Bank of Japan recently have actually gone to negative interest
rates meaning banks pay the ECB or BOJ to place reserves in the central
bank. The Fed is considering such a negative rate policy shift. Today it
has been calculated that more than $13 trillion worth of government
bonds globally now have negative rates. That’s more than one-third of
all government bonds. That means someone buying those bonds and holding
until it matures, will actually lose money. Only because major pension
funds and insurance companies are required by law, originally for
reasons of safe and prudent long-term investment, to buy only high-rated
government bonds can the negative rate bonds find buyers.
Now, for the same reason, high-rated
corporate bonds are being offered paying negative interest rates.
Bloomberg Business reports that $512 billion worth of corporate bonds
now have negative rates, 11 times more corporate bonds with negative
yields than there were six months ago. With so much of government bonds
paying negative interest, and now an exploding share of the US corporate
bonds, the solvency risks of US pension funds and insurance companies
is growing alarmingly in a chain-reaction follow-on effect.
The alarming warning signal of trouble
in the US corporate bond market with soaring rates of debt
delinquencies, and the fact that since the collapse of the US shale oil
industry Wall Street and other major bank creditors have been tightening
criteria for extending more debt, say to me that the US economy is on
the precipice of a new debt default implosion that will make 2008 appear
a financial market hiccup by comparison. Maybe this reality is behind
the utterly irrational Washington hysteria against Russia and now
against China. If you run out of targets from whom to rob assets
peacefully through stock market and bond manipulations, try the old
method of gunpoint. Only this time the intended victims are not reacting
at all as victims, but as defenders of their sovereignty. Something new
and unexpected by Washington and their Wall Street patrons.
F. William Engdahl is
strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics
from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and
geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook” http://journal-neo.org/2016/07/28/the-usa-debt-time-bomb-tocking-ticking-tock-tick/
CIA FBI NSA ET AL R GONNA BE VERY SORRY ABOUT THE HACKING JOB COLLAPSE, TOO
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