Sunday, September 14, 2014
Renminbi is Already A De Facto Reserve Currency
“There are signs lately of growing disaffection with the United States dollar.” – Yves-Andre Istel, former vice chairman of Rothschild Inc.
Sometimes the most obvious truths are hidden right in front of our eyes. Our inability to not see or acknowledge these realities often leads to sudden jarring moments of realization which can’t be ignored. These rare moments leave us feeling shocked and betrayed but with no one to blame, so the human socioeconomic collective roams the wasted lands of the hinder mind in search of new reference points.
We are presently on a trajectory course heading directly for one of these historical moments. It can even be argued that much of what is happening in the world today, and has been over the last few years, is the quest for new reference points, not just by the individual, but also the state machinery of the industrialized west.
Like all trajectories there is a landing and the decent has begun. But it will not be a descent into madness and mayhem, but a solid landing in the midst of confused winds. Like every single reserve currency before it, the United States dollar is caught in the swirling vacuum of monetary deficiencies and is desperately seeking escape. But in escape they are attempting to secure resources and global opportunities for their lineage based wealth.
What is clear from all public statements and official publications is that the United States no longer wishes to hold the world’s primary reserve currency, as it has been both a blessing and a curse. As the now infamous quote by Kyle Bass about killing the dollar has been heard by all interested parties, and some time has passed us by, it can be determined that the dollar he was referring to was the reserve dollar and not the American currency itself.
At the same time China has made it absolutely clear that they have no interest in making the renminbi the international reserve currency. They have observed in great detail the path that primary reserve currencies take and do not wish to see their once again burgeoning power in the world wane, as it did in the face of western industrialization.
Like currencies are now pegged to the value of the US dollar, other currencies will soon be pegged to the value of the renminbi, but neither currency will be the primary reserve currency by which international trade is balanced. What we are heading towards is the expansion of the Special Drawing Right basket of the International Monetary Fund.
The basket currently is valued on four reserve currencies, being the US dollar, Japanese yen, British sterling, and the Euro. Every five years the basket is adjusted and we are now entering the time period when this could happen. Though China doesn’t want the yuan to be the primary reserve currency of the world, they do wish to see it internationalized and become one of the reserve currencies which make up the SDR basket valuation.
With the renminbi added to the SDR basket there will be a greater sense of stability in the international monetary system. The events of the last few years are much better understood in this manner.
The much discussed BRICS Development Bank and Contingency Reserve Fund have more to do with strengthening the renminbi for inclusion into the SDR basket and less to do with any dreamed up attempts at overthrowing the dollar. Those who promote the storyline of a BRICS overthrow of the US dollar are directly proven wrong by the public announcements and publications of the BRICS countries and institutions themselves.
Other means by which the renminbi will be strengthened before its inclusion into the SDR basket is found in the upcoming international offering of yuan denominated gold from the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This will begin on September 26th and will work parallel with China’s attempts at diversifying its assets by importing large amounts of gold from the west, as well as balancing sovereign debts from the past.
Indirectly, those promoting baseless theories of the eastern overthrow of the dollar are proven faulty in their analysis by the fact that foreign reserves of US dollars continue to increase and gold is still flat at best, leading to the solid conclusion that the economic banking interests in the world are continuing to support the dollar system in order to facilitate the transition to the multilateral system and inclusion of the renminbi into the SDR basket.
How else would you explain the increasing expansion of the renminbi in the foreign currency reserves of central banks around the world? These numbers are hardly reported and are not required to be, even though the currency has not been internationalized. In the last year over 50 central banks have been actively increasing their holdings of renminbi, both onshore and offshore. These central banks are located in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe.
In essence, the internationalization of the Chinese currency is already taking place as shown in the vast amount of currency swap agreements and trading hubs being set up around the world. There is a frantic pace to this defacto internationalization, such as the two Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Ontario working together to quickly implement the trading hub here in Canada.
Whether the renminbi has been given official reserve status or not matters little when the world has already embraced the currency. In the post Everything Will Be SDR Compliant, it is detailed how the BRICS countries still support the mandates of reforming the international system through the IMF.
In other official publications it has been made clear by all sides, including the BRICS countries and the US Treasury, that support exists for this restructuring of the global system, not just for the IMF, but also for the United Nations and the G20.
Here is another recent publication from the Centre for International Governance Innovation, or CIGI, titled China’s Goal in the G20. It further supports everything I’ve been stating here since January.
The world is clamoring for an alternative to the dollar as the primary reserve currency. This does not mean the American currency will collapse. In fact, the rest of the world is ensuring that it doesn’t as they hold large amounts of the asset in their foreign reserve accounts.
And in turn central banks around the world are dramatically increasing their foreign holdings of the Chinese asset, all in preparation of balancing the global system when the renminbi is ultimately included in the SDR basket valuation. This one event will change the world we live. It is just sad that though most will know and sense that something has happened, they will be unable to put their finger on exactly what that change is. Those in the western world will feel less exceptional and those in the east will feel empowered and encouraged for future growth.
But yet there is hope for the west as detailed in the post The New Industrialization of America.
In previous posts I’ve discussed the usage of substitution accounts where debts between the US dollar and the renminbi can be quietly balanced without disrupting the international economy. Somewhere within the hidden chambers of these substitution accounts lay the real reason for the delay on the 2010 Governance and Quota Reforms for the IMF.
But once the renminbi is included into the SDR basket, the world will be then left to face the large amount of sovereign debt which will require consolidation and restructuring through the issuance of SDR denominated bonds. Though there are proxy wars for the control of resources taking place around the world, all sides are working silently and closely together on balancing the substitution accounts and getting the renminbi prepared for its rise to one of five reserve currencies included in the SDR basket. Then the real work begins.
This year is far from over when it comes to the economic transition which is taking place. We need to keep our eyes open and observe the truths as they unfold. – JC